49ers_v_PackersThe 49ers vs. Packers rivalry is one of the longest in the team’s history, with the first matchup dating back to 1950 and really becoming heated with the teams’ playoff matchups in the playoffs in the 1990s. The Packers are the sixth most played team in the 49ers history and one of the few teams they have played more than 10 times that they have an all-time losing record against. With their quest for a sixth Super Bowl on the line, the 49ers would love to notch another win in this rivalry.

As a part of the continuing coverage of the 49ers vs. Packers playoff matchups, today we’ll look at the statistical tale of the tape between the two teams.

Historical Matchups:

  • Regular Season head to head matchups: Packers 30 wins, 49ers 26 wins with 1 tie. 49ers lead all time scoring between teams 1166 to 1165.
  • Playoff head to head matchups: Packers 4 wins, 49ers 1 win. Packers lead all time playoff scoring between teams 137 to 86.
  • Regular season matchups in San Francisco: 49ers 16 wins, Packers 11 wins, 1 tie. 49ers lead all-time scoring between teams 621 to 540.
  • Playoff matchups in San Francisco: 49ers 1 win, Packers 2 wins. Packers lead all time playoff scoring in San Francisco between teams 77 to 57.

Traditional Stats:

49ers (NFL rank) Packers (NFL rank)
11-4-1 (5th) Record 11-5 (t-6th)
397 (11th) Points For 433 (5th)
273 (2nd) Points Against 336 (11th)
362 (11th) Total Offense 359 (13th)
206 (23rd) Passing Offense 253 (9th)
23 (16th) Passing TDs 40 (2nd)
156 (4th) Rushing Offense 106 (20th)
17 (6th) Rushing TDs 9 (25th)
294 (3rd) Total Defense 337 (11th)
200 (4th) Passing Defense 218 (11th)
94 (4th) Rushing Defense 119 (17th)
19 (9th) Passing TDs Allowed      24 (16th)
7 (4th) Rushing TDs Allowed 12 (16th)
69% (31st) Field Goal % 63.6% (32nd)
48.1 (3rd) Yards per Punt 42.9 (26th)
10.5 (10th) Punt Return Avg 11 (8th)
24.8 (11th) Kick Return Avg 25 (10th)
9 (t-6th) Turnover Differential 7 (10th)

 

The traditional stats show that the Packers have the edge on offense, while the 49ers have the edge on defense. On special teams, the teams are fairly equal with the only deviation being the 49ers advantage in punting due to Andy Lee.

Advanced Stats:

49ers (NFL rank) Packers (NFL rank)
29.9% (4th) Total DVOA 26.6% (5th)
17% (5th) Offensive DOVA 19.5% (3rd)
33.2% (5th) Passing DOVA 40.6% (3rd)
12.6% (3rd) Rushing DOVA -0.8% (13th)
208.9 (1st) Total Offense PFF Rating 68.2 (13th)
41.8 (9th) Total Pass PFF Rating 56.0 (6th)
16.3 (6th) Total Rush PFF Rating -2.7 (26th)
21.8 (10th) Total Pass Block PFF Rating 33.5 (6th)
126.2 (1st) Total Run Block PFF Rating -25.9 (29th)
-14.3% (3rd) Defensive DOVA -7.3 (8th)
-10.3 (6th) Pass D DOVA -8.1 (7th)
-19.7 (2nd) Rush D DOVA -6.4 (14th)
99.6 (3rd) Total Defense PFF Rating 34.2 (10th)
-2.8 (19th) Total Pass Rush PFF Rating -36.0 (30th)
35.6 (5th) Total Pass Coverage PFF Rating    50.3 (2nd)
72.8 (1st) Total Run D PFF Rating 25.5 (14th)
-1.5% (20th) Special Teams DOVA -0.2% (18th)
43.4 (11th) Special Teams PFF Ranking 24.6 (20th)

 

The DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistics are from Football Outsiders, it is a stat that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. For more information you can go here.

The PFF Ratings are from Pro Football Focus and represent the cumulative grade for each team for each category this season. For more information you can go here.

Conclusions:

Overall this looks to be a very even matchup between two very good teams. The 49ers have the edge in defense but the Packers are much improved over last year. The Packers have a slight edge in offense and again the 49ers have improved from last year.

Another similarity between the teams is that they have seen their kickers struggle with accuracy this season. This could become an interesting subplot if the game is close and the wind starts swirling around The Stick late in the afternoon on Saturday.

With two teams this evenly matched it has the makings of another epic playoff clash. Hopefully it will turn out better than the playoff games that happened in the 1990s.