Picked ‘em every week, so in those games I’m 3-1 against the spread!
I’m in full Jay Cutler mode right now, so you’ll have to excuse me. My shoulders are slumped and I’m not feeling too optimistic about this season, I’ll have to admit. It’s not like I have a chance to win anyway. Just like Cutler’s line, my lines suck every week. Totally substandard, both from myself and the betting lines. How am I supposed to stack up against some guy with a computer for a brain, like Bay Area Stats Guy?
“Ooh, I just run my little numbers, and once the hamster falls out of the wheel a slip of paper comes out of the bottom of my GAME PROJECTOR 3000, and that tells me who’s going to win. Elementary.”
Or there’s East Bay Sports Guy, who may or may not spend 3/4 of his waking hours on Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, I’m writing about baseball players wearing spandex bodysuits. Gee, wonder who’s in a better position to win.
So now that these grapes are making everyone pucker, it’s time to contribute something to this weekly post. So check out the photos of the 49ers’ new stadium in Santa Clara that I took today at the end of this post, after the graph that shows had badly I’m doing on these picks.
Oakland Raiders @ Bye (-3)
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers (-11)
Bay Area Sports Guy: A few years ago, Candlestick Park would’ve been empty on a weekend like this with playoff baseball, concerts and Fleet Week going on. Instead, the positive energy should carry over to a packed house, the defense will follow up their shutout of the Jets by keeping Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones and Scott Chandler from going off in the passing game, and the offense will work on perfecting some
trick plays of Greg Roman’s “mixers.” Pick: 49ers
East Bay Sports Guy: Do I think the 49ers will win? Of course. Do I think they’ll win by 10? Of course not. We’ll be lucky if the cumulative score reaches 10. This will be a defensive battle, or as I like to call it, naptime. Wake me up when it’s over. Pick: Bills
Bay Area Stats Guy: I like the 49ers but I have a hard time laying down 11 points. The model says they will win 57 percent of the time with an average margin of 3 points, a median margin of 4 pints and the most common score 24 to 17. I think that they win by a touchdown to possibly ten points but I am not certain enough that they can cover 11 to lay those points. Pick: Bills
Ruthless Sports Guy: I was initially going to take the Bills here because 11 is an awfully big number, but then I remembered just how nails Jim Harbaugh has been against the spread. I’ll give Buffalo the 11 points and hope that Coach is in a bad mood. Pick: 49ers
Bay Area Duck Guy: After what we saw last weekend, it’s very difficult to bet against the 49ers, even with a spread like this. If this game was in Buffalo, I may lean towards the Bills scoring enough to be within the spread. But the game is in San Francisco, so Harbaugh and the boys will get it done. Pick: 49ers
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins
Bay Area Sports Guy: I don’t see any team staying undefeated for an extraordinarily long time, even the Houston Texans. While the Falcons are the better team, I see Robert Griffin III leading Washington to their first home victory of the season on Sunday. Pick: Redskins
East Bay Sports Guy: This pick was largely determined by skepticism. That is, I don’t believe the Falcons can go 5-0. Though I don’t think RGIII’s arm can beat the Falcons, I think his legs can. The Redskins have the second best rushing attack in the NFL, according to ProFootball Focus, while the Falcons have the sixth worst rush defense. This combination means Matt Ryan and that explosive Falcons’ offense will be relegated to the sidelines on Sunday. Pick: Redskins
Bay Area Stats Guy: The Falcons should win this game about 55 percent of the time, which was actually surprisingly low for what the projected scores came out to be. The average margin was 5 points, the median 3 and the most common score was 24-20. I like the Falcons to improve to 5-0 with a win here. Pick: Falcons
Ruthless Sports Guy: Homefield advantage for the Skins just doesn’t scare me away from the Falcons on this one. Atlanta is unbelievable and I don’t see many teams that can beat them right now. Add in the advantage of covering with a 3-point win and I just can’t resist. Pick: Falcons
Bay Area Duck Guy: I’m going with the underdog at home here. The Falcons are the better team, but they really don’t have much to play for – no one is even close in the NFC South. Matt Ryan and co. could easily overlook RG3 and Washington to the point where the Redskins put some points on the board at home. Pick: Redskins