BASG non-expert NFL picks: Week 7 (Gary Radnich probably refuses to read these posts)

Bay Area Sports Guy October 18, 2012

Photo via Flickr user SRSLY LOLZ

If you’re a fan of awkward radio, you could do worse than tuning into “THE GARY RADNICH SHOW (with larry krueger)” when Adam Meyer (otherwise known as “Adam Wins”) comes on to promote his handicapping site. It’s not awkward so much for the dialogue, which is no different than any of the other paid betting-related segments KNBR shoves down our throats.

What’s noteworthy is how Radnich goes completely silent when Meyer comes on, almost in protest.

Radnich usually inserts himself into every interview, often laughing over Krueger when his questions get too far into the nuts and bolts of x’s and o’s for Radnich’s liking. But when Meyer comes on, Krueger steers the ship allows Meyer to pitch some joke of a deal to the poor gambling-addicted souls listening and believing that they can make their money back with one good weekend.

Sample Meyer line: “Since we had a tough week in college football, I’m going to offer a gift to your listeners. For just $300 we’re going to give you the rest of the college football season.”

What a bargain.

Once the Meyer segment is over, Radnich pipes up once again and makes a couple jokes as producer Mike Holer tries to usher the show into a commercial break. Whenever I hear this odd sequence take place, I wonder how many times Lee Hammer has tried to pressure Radnich into pretending that he doesn’t detest these so-called sports handicappers and the segments they pay Cumulus to run.

Because of Meyer’s less-than-trustworthy persona, he has a Google problem that isn’t quite as bad as Rick Santorum’s … but it’s close. So it isn’t difficult to see why Radnich wants no part of associating with the guy. But Meyer has to know that Radnich clams up during his segments and that it hurts his already questionable reputation. Part of me respects Radnich for standing by his principles, and another part of me wonders how much longer he can thumb his nose at an unsavory yet valued advertiser.

***

In terms of our reputations here at BASG, we have no such concerns. We don’t pretend that we’ll make you money, or that following our advice is any sort of “investment.” Heck, none of us are even at 50% against the spread this season (as you’ll see below). But you should read our picks anyway, just to see why I’m the only one who is picking the Niners tonight.

The 49ers have gone 4-0 after losses under Harbaugh, outscoring opponents 93-11.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Bay Area Sports Guy: If you don’t believe there will be a reason for Pete Carroll to once again utter “what’s your deal” after this game, you don’t believe in the 49ers. I love the NFC West this year. Good defenses galore. But the 49ers are angry and good, while the Seahawks are Team Forrest Gump this year — no idea what they’re doing, but the outcome almost always seems to fall in their favor. Time for some Seachicken reality tonight with yours truly in attendance. Pick: 49ers

East Bay Sports Guy: This should be an interesting matchup. The 49ers strength on offense–running the ball—just so happens to oppose the Seahawks strength on defense—defending the run–which means the fate of the game will be put into the hands of Alex Smith. According to Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks have the best pass rush in the league. With Joe Staley’s status in question, Alex Smith’s ability to the throw the ball will be in question, especially with a torrent of Seattle defenders breathing down his neck. When under duress from four man fronts, Smith has completed only 46.9% of his passes, while taking 16 sacks. This doesn’t mean the 49ers will lose, but it does mean they won’t be the 49ers by 7. Pick: Seahawks

Bay Area Stats Guy: Last week was depressing, and I fully expect San Francisco to play much better. I have the 49ers winning this game 55 percent of the time but only winning by 4 points. With the line at 7 points I am going to take Seahawks here. I don’t feel good about it because I think the 49ers might want to prove last week was a fluke but I don’t feel good enough to overrule the system. Pick: Seahawks

Ruthless Sports Guy: I guess Vegas was neither impressed by Seattle’s home win over New England nor discouraged by San Francisco’s home bludgeoning by the Giants. Seven points is a huge number, especially in a division rivalry game with two of the league’s top defenses. I like Jim Harbaugh to continue his ownage over Pete Carroll, but not by a touchdown. I’ll be at the game, and if I’m right about this pick I’ll wait to retweet it until minutes after the game goes final. Pick: Seahawks

Bay Area Duck Guy: A spread of seven is really, really high considering both teams are 4-2 and San Francisco got demolished at home last week. The question will be if the 49ers run defense returns to regular form against Lynch, and I bet it will. I think the 49ers will win this defensive battle, but not by more than seven. Pick: Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-7)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Texans
East Bay Sports Guy: Texans
Bay Area Stats Guy: Ravens
Ruthless Sports Guy: Ravens
Bay Area Duck Guy: Texans

Green Bay Packers (-5) @ St. Louis Rams
Bay Area Sports Guy: Rams
East Bay Sports Guy: Packers
Bay Area Stats Guy: Rams
Ruthless Sports Guy: Packers
Bay Area Duck Guy: Packers

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Bills
East Bay Sports Guy: Bills
Bay Area Stats Guy: Titans
Ruthless Sports Guy: Titans
Bay Area Duck Guy: Titans

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Colts
East Bay Sports Guy: Colts
Bay Area Stats Guy: Colts
Ruthless Sports Guy: Colts
Bay Area Duck Guy: Colts

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bay Area Sports Guy: Buccaneers
East Bay Sports Guy: Buccaneers
Bay Area Stats Guy: Buccaneers
Ruthless Sports Guy: Saints
Bay Area Duck Guy: Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Bay Area Sports Guy: Cowboys
East Bay Sports Guy: Cowboys
Bay Area Stats Guy: Panthers
Ruthless Sports Guy: Panthers
Bay Area Duck Guy: Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Cardinals
East Bay Sports Guy: Vikings
Bay Area Stats Guy: Cardinals
Ruthless Sports Guy: Cardinals
Bay Area Duck Guy: Vikings

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-5.5)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Giants
East Bay Sports Guy: Giants
Bay Area Stats Guy: Redskins
Ruthless Sports Guy: Giants
Bay Area Duck Guy: Giants

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-12)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Patriots
East Bay Sports Guy: Jets
Bay Area Stats Guy: Patriots
Ruthless Sports Guy: Patriots
Bay Area Duck Guy: Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (PK)
Bay Area Sports Guy: Bengals
East Bay Sports Guy: Bengals
Bay Area Stats Guy: Bengals
Ruthless Sports Guy: Steelers
Bay Area Duck Guy: Steelers

***

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders (-4)

Bay Area Sports Guy: C’mon Raiders. If you can’t beat Blaine Gabbert at home by 5 or more… BTW, who would be against an MJD for Run DMC trade right now? Wouldn’t that make a ridiculous amount of sense for both sides on the basis of tickets sold alone? Let’s bring the De La Salle legend back. Pick: Raiders

East Bay Sports Guy: The Raiders played their best game of the season last week, which means either two things: That they caught a sleeping Atlanta team off their game or that they’ve improved. I’ll choose the latter. In keeping with that theory, there is no reason to believe the Raiders won’t pummel a team that is statistically worse in almost every category. Pick: Raiders

Bay Area Stats Guy: My model says that this is a toss up, the line favors the Raiders. I think that is pretty crazy. I would put quite a bit of money on the Jaguars in this one. Pick: Jaguars

Ruthless Sports Guy: Is there a matchup on the Week 7 billing less sexy than this one? You know those times when Scott Hanson says “On NFL Redzone we show you every touchdown from every game, so we’ll show you this”? That’s probably going to be the extent of the coverage from this game. Hopefully Greg Knapp will finally figure out how to use Darren McFadden, and if not, maybe Cecil Shorts will make another spectacular catch so those of us who watch NFL Network will get to hear a week’s worth of “CAUGHT BY SHORTS” highlights. I’ll go with the Raiders to be the lesser of two awfuls in Oakland this Sunday. Pick: Raiders

Bay Area Duck Guy: This is the week I pick a Raiders game right. They impressed last week on the road against the Falcons, so in theory Oakland should continue to improve this week at home against an inferior opponent. Pick: Raiders

***

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-7)

Bay Area Sports Guy: Jim Schwartz has gone 7-9 since Jim Harbaugh slapped him in the back. The Lions aren’t a good team, mostly because their defense is fraudulent. Pick: Bears

East Bay Sports Guy: Detroit’s defense is horrible—and that’s an understatement. PFF ranks them as the second worst defense in the league. On the road, Detroit’s allowed 31.3 points per game on average. Chicago averages 32 per game at home, while allowing opponents to average just 13.5. This is recipe for a blowout. Pick: Bears

Bay Area Stats Guy: When the Bears win this game they tend to win it big. I have them winning about 53% of the time with an average margin of 7 points. I would love if the model liked the Bears to win more often but at least it like them to win big when they do. So I guess I am taking the points on hoping for a good Jay Cutler night. Pick: Bears

Ruthless Sports Guy: Jay Cutler may be a father now, but the Lions’ defensive line is going to be his daddy after this game is over. You’ll have to excuse my bias here, because Cutler went ahead and screwed up my fantasy football team by being the most obnoxious player to own on the face of the earth. This game is going to feature two quarterbacks in Cutler and Stafford that give out interceptions like Bumpy Johnson handed out turkeys on Thanksgiving. That being said, Stafford will probably fall behind by 21 points and then rally back for the win at the very end. And I’m not worried if Stafford gets hurt, because Shaun Hill will come in and do what he does best: cover the point spread. Pick: Lions

Bay Area Duck Guy: The Bears have impressed this year whereas the Lions have disappointed. I expect that trend to continue with the game in Chicago as the Bears’ defense will create tons of problems for Matthew Stafford. Pick: Bears

About the Author

Otherwise known as Steve Berman (no, not the guy from the Eminem skits), BASG started Bay Area Sports Guy in January of 2008 with the help of his then-girlfriend (now wife). Since then he's covered college football for CSN Bay Area, gained media access to the Giants, Warriors and 49ers, and built Bay Area Sports Guy into the No. 1 independent Bay Area sports blog. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

31 comments

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Beaver

I feel like I need a shower if I ever hear Adam Meyer with Bob Fitzgerald. Are there two more disingenuous and slimy guys on the radio?

Stan

Radnich-unlike 2010 is on the bandwagon. In 2010 he was the anti-fan...would ignore the Giants. He spent most of 2011 saying on air that he made a mistake,played it wrong. He's not repeating that again.

Stan

I wonder if the name change..ties in with a angry Kreuger about a week ago who called down Radnich on..Ok,I forgot..but Krueger was angry-you could see it on TV,and made remarks about Radnich being on both sides of something. That was before the show's title changed. I do think..Raddy is feeling better with Bunghole gone. Radnich had to have felt next on the list after Ralph...but,no more.

Slam

Here's my thing: If you want to bet on sports, don't lose more than you can afford because YOU WILL LOSE. Have fun with it, and keep the dollar amount low And if you like listening to guys like Adam Meyer talk about point spreads, that's fine. But to PAY a guy like that ? That is the height of STUPIDITY because NO ONE knows who will cover point spreads. You can do all the research in the world and perfectly break down the match up, then the QB throws 4 int's or the RB fumbles 3 times.

Stan

THE GARY RADNICH SHOW. with Larry. For somebody who says "Larry saved my career"....

The Sports Leader

I am a frequent crictic of Gary Radnich but give the guy credit for sticking to his principles. Like him or not he takes a stand on this issue and I tip my hat to him. Honestly those betting spots on KNBR or any other radio program (Ronn Owens had one years ago) are garbage!

3rdKing

the reason Gary goes quiet is the same reason i turn off the radio when Adam Meyer comes on, he knows nothing you'd do better with Gary making the picks Gary reads your site BASG, he catches my posts often he is a super boss, you can't faze him

Stan

Yep,I've seen enough horror movies to know that an evil pervades KNBR. I have never met anybody who likes the Fitz and Brooks show..but it wont die.

Stan

..it wont go away. Its the Freddie and Brooks show.

Slam

When Gary talks over or ignores a caller it really pisses me off. If you can't pretend to appreciate someone calling your show, then don't take phone calls. But even with that criticism, Gary is #1. Funny, smart, GREAT interviewer, shifts gears really well, hits the correct balance between hard sports and "My kids ballet slippers cost too much" silly.

TommyJ

Got into my rant and wanted to add one more thing. Why is "Adam Spins" on with Gary and Larry anyway. Friction with "Bruin" Murphy and the Soundboard? Can Fitz not talk gambling with a prognosticator anymore? I know the Association frowned on him talking NBA games with Meyer on the show and he would recuse himself on that portion of the segment. Did the league tell him he can't have any prognosticator on to talk gambling on any sports. Don't really listen to F & B anymore since every time I click on , they are laughing hysterically or yelling at a caller who has the gall to disagree with them. Do they do anything involving gambling? That contest between Bob, Rod and the sales girl? Is that still on?

B.A. Rich

Meyer still comes on w/ Fitz and Brooks. They still do that Pick Challenge but I don't know what happened to the girl (Sarah). And yes, I'm ashamed I know so much about the Fitz and Brooks show. Meyer comes on the Radnich show instead of Murph and Mac, I'm assuming because Radnich's show gets better ratings and Meyer probably wants to pay to be on a show with better ratings. Just a guess.

Slam

Fitz is SO smart. I know, because he says it every day. What a DICK.

TommyJ

I've posted numerous times how Radnich hijacks the show to try to inject some "Basketball Wives" or some other nonsense. But like the others, I am very proud of Gary on this stance. The only prognosticators that were/are decent are Greg Roberts on with Mr T a while back and "Dr Bob" on Damon's show, because there was some thoughtful analysis and some payful back and forth between them and their respective hosts. I was being sold softly, not being hit over the head constantly of how great "Adam wins" is or groveling for my credit card # (forgot the premise, but he either offered a Veteran's Day discount last year or mentioned to beat the recession, a good investment would be sports betting with him; dude has no morals and can get into a locked room withour opening a door by sliding under it the human slime). Again good for Gary for taking a stand and shame on Cumulus for jamming us with another commerical during a show when you already run enough damn spots!

Sunset Boy

Not a fan of Radnich and his loudmouth persona, but I have to give him credit for sticking to his principles. Meyer's segment is a paid commercial, preying on the weak, a "snake oil salesman", if you will. Radnich recognizes this, and he won't allow himself to be a whore for this type of chicanery. Props to you, Gary Radnich, even if I can't stand your antics. Good to see that someone at KNBR still has some self respect.

Frankthetank

Gary may be a lot of things, and he no doubt has lost some zip from his fastball. But I respect him for not selling any ads or promoting or being a part of segments like Adam Meyer. Lee hammer wake the hell up. Instant channel change.

Stan

Nice Oompa Loompa pic of my friend Gary.

B.A. Rich

It will be interesting when Radnich will have no choice but to do the Meyer segment by himself. Meyer is on throughout the football season. I would imagine Larry would have a vacation at some point during that time, thus leaving Radnich with Meyer all to himself. I remember either last year or the year before, Radnich was forced a segment with Meyer because The Fitz and Brooks show wasn't on that day. Since Meyer PAYS to come on KNBR every week, he had to get what he paid for so KNBR had to put him on with Radnich. It was a very interesting/awkward segment.

NoGood

I don't listen to Radnich's show on KNBR but I catch it on Comcast now and then. The reason you never hear Gary during these segments is because he actually leaves the room altogether, and comes back in at the very end. I've seen Gary do this on Comcast a couple times, not sure if he does it every time though.

Stan

Even when I'm in the mood..I don't catch much of the Gary and flunky show. How can I?..its 10 minutes of commercials to 8 minutes of talk. KNBR's lost audience to the Game IS NO DOUBT because of those many commerical blocks. People change stations..why KNBR would think its 1958 and no alternative when listeners now have choices is a grave mistake.

Fitz's Future Unemployment Check

lost audience to the game? a handful sure, but they're still dominating them in the ratings. cue the game's interns giving my comment a ton of thumbs downs

ReggieWrite

I happen to think that guys like Adam Meyer are kind of cheesy ("phone in now for our guaranteed lock of the week.", etc..). And come to think of it, I'm curious whether Meyer pays KNBR for the exposure. Seems like he might be because why else would they be spending so much time with him. If that's the case, shouldn't they be disclosing that fact? Not sure whether Radnich's silence when Meyer is on is because he disapproves or not but if it is, more power to him. These betting advice gurus are sleazy..

Stan

Of course it's a paid segment. And Krueger no doubt is paid extra to shill. That sort of fly's in the face of Kreuger's statement that he's evolving as a person. More like he's refining being a con artist. Radnich ear also is being whispered into by those who trust Larry as far as they can throw him. I guess the new name of the show is to put Larry back in his place..and also that his( Larry) best Cumulus friend Bill Bunghole was fired has let Raddy reassert his power.

Slam

Gary has seen people up close get destroyed by sports wagering, and gambling in general, when he lived in Las Vegas. He DETESTS those gambling segments. Adam Meyer a couple weeks ago said " Don't invest in the stock market, invest in sport betting and make REAL money ". And Gary, after the segment, said " Did he really just say that ?" I agree with Gary 100%.

B.A. Rich

Are you the same 'Slam' who called in to Gary's show this morning?

Slam

Nope. I've heard that guy, but it's not me. I had "SLAM" vanity plates once and people wanted to know if I was the wrestling magazine guy. Not him either.

The Hangman

I thinks its pretty much because Radnich knows nothing about sports gaming and figures he can take a breather while Krueger does the talking. I doubt it's a silent protest.

devnull

Radnich has made unflattering remarks on several occasions about the Meyers "segments" (read: paid commercials), so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not even in the booth when they happen. He may have been more vocal about disliking the Meyers things when they were happening more often on Murph&Mac so Radnich didn't have to be exposed to it directly. Whatever the case, it's a fair bet the Cumulous isn't happy with Radnich not playing along. It's one of the few things I respect about Radnich, frankly. I find the commercials detestable.