Bay Area Sports Guy – Joe Flacco and the Deep Ball: A nightmare scenario for the 49ers

Phil Simms. Joe Montana. Troy Aikman. Steve Young. Drew Brees. All Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. All (soon to be) Hall of Famers — except for Simms. All are Joe Flacco-like in their playoff performances. Or, perhaps, I should say Flacco is like them. Either way, the point remains: Flacco’s playoff performance stands among the elite.

This postseason Flacco has thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Simms, Montana, Young and Brees are the only other quarterbacks to throw at least eight touchdowns with no interceptions in a single postseason. Coincidentally, their respective performances propelled their teams to Super Bowl victory. Only one obstacle remains for Flacco, and it happens to be a big one.

In the regular season, there was no better defense than that of the 49ers. They gave up only 4.7 yards per play, while allowing teams to score just an average of 17.1 points per game. They bent slightly, but never broke. Quarterbacks completed just 36.3% of passes 16 yards or more. But this trend has largely reversed in the playoffs.

In their last two matchups, the 49ers have given up 6.7 yards per play and 27.5 points per game. A big reason for this has been their inability to defend the deep pass. In their respective playoff games, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan both completed 3-of-5 passes of 20 yards or more. Ruthless Sports Guy has broken down the blunders of safeties Dashon Goldson and Donte Whinter, so I won’t belabor that point. But what I will do is show why the recent struggles in the secondary are problematic against Joe Flacco.

Flacco is not just playing at an elite level because he’s not throwing interceptions, a la Simms and company. He’s playing at an elite level because he’s been accurate and efficient, especially when throwing deep.

In the regular season, Flacco struggled with consistency. This is largely shown by his poor accuracy both when attempting deep passes and when facing pressure. However, over the past three games, Flacco has turned it on. Not only is he throwing the ball down field on one in every four passes, but he’s completing them at a rate that defies logic.

Since 2008, only four quarterbacks have thrown in deep on at least 19% of their total attempts. None of them enjoyed the nearly the success that Flacco has been having.

As with any stat-centric post, sample size is a huge concern. Not many quarterbacks attempt as many deep throws. But this isn’t a coincidence. Deep throws have a very low success rate. This is why Peyton Manning, arguable the most efficient quarterback in the league this season, attempted such passes just 12% of the time. Last year’s Most Valuable Player (MVP), Aaron Rodgers, also attempt such passes only 12% of the time. The MVP of 2010, Tom Brady, attempted them just 9% of the time.

Good quarterbacking and the deep ball are antonyms in all cases but Flacco’s. This fact must be of huge concern to the 49ers, whose secondary has proved unable to defend it. If Goldson and Whitner make the same mistakes they’ve been making, the Super Bowl will be anything but super for the 49ers.

JoeC

More horrible "analysis" from EBSG. I hope he doesn't get a paycheck for this, because it's undeserved. So Flacco is now a god when it comes to quarterbacking, huh? And the 49ers are all thumbs when it comes to pass defense, huh? Nuts. Concerning Flacco, he's one SUPER-LUCKY Hail Mary from being tossed out of these playoffs on his bum. So your "omg best quarterback of all time", by all rights, shouldn't even be here. So, would you say that perhaps the 49ers difficulties with pass defense in the playoffs has something to do with facing two of the best quarterbacks and receiving corps in the game? And yet, somehow, they were able to hold these explosives offenses to 24 points each time (taking away 7 points from GB because of the Kaep int). Well how did the 49ers D do that? It must be because they suck. It must be because they can't defend the deep pass. I'm not sure what games EBSG has been watching, but I've seen plenty of plays by the 49ers pass defense on deep balls. Have they given up some plays? Certainly. The first Atlanta touchdown was especially bad. But overall, they've contained two of the best pass offenses in the game today. Doesn't sound like FAIL to me, unlike this article.

Eric

Gotta disagree. The Niners have a sudden knack for getting smoked in the secondary, and the Ravens have an outstanding offensive line to give Flacco time. Flacco clearly turned a corner this season, and hail mary's due to bad 'D' aside, the passing game of Baltimore is top two that they have faced the second half of the season. Taking the 'fan' out of it, the Ravens have a magic way of coming up with the big play deep, and the 49'er D has a way of giving up clumps of points. With a shaky kicker, the Niner defense needs to play like they did at the end of the Atlanta game, and not like the Seahawks/Patriot games. A dinged up Smith combo says not a ton of pressure on Flacco, and a ton of pressure on the Niner secondary.

JoeC

No. The Falcons, Patriots and Packers all have a better passing game than the Ravens. And we beat them all. The thing that makes the Ravens different is that they also have a running game, unlike those other 3 offenses. If the 49ers are able to shut it down though, it becomes a moot point. The 49ers have been putting pressure on QBs in the playoffs. There's a reason they held Atlanta scoreless and Green Bay to one field goal and a garbage time TD in the second halves of their playoff games. It's true that the 49ers have given up a ton of passing yards, but if you hold teams to field goals sometimes and force them to turn the ball over enough, it doesn't really matter how many yards you give up.

Stan

Flacco IS peaking. But those close games usually add up to a letdown big game. Usually.

Tod

Akers being shaky might have an upside in that the 49ers seem like they have been trying to get seven instead of getting conservative and trying not to lose FG territory. I don't think it's a coincidence that they have been more aggressive near and in the red zone lately. As far as Ray Lewis and the motivation that he provides, my guess is that, while his pre game speech is likely to inspire them, by the time the game starts all the players are going to have a lot more going on in their heads than what Lewis said. If he plays an inspired game on the field, it seems to me that the others would be more likely to find motivation there. There are lots of things that can go right and wrong, but I agree that getting pressure on Flacco seems like an excellent idea. If he picks apart the Niners D under pressure and beats us, then he deserves to win. But, that just doesn't seem to be his game, so let's hope the D forces him into doing something he doesn't like.

Stan

And maybe there is some of "We got by the conference finals" in the 49ers. I'm pretty sure Madden wanted Harbaugh to get past that when he gave him the "Don't be happy to be there" tips. But,what if they are? I don't see a rout.

Eric

I'm feeling ya, and that is usually the case, but close games also come down to field goal kickers. That is an area that the 49ers are coming up short...i still have faith in Akers, simply based on his history, but I wouldn't put $ on him. Baltimore also has confidence, and is a lot like the Giants last year: Crap regular season, magic in the post season. Peaking plus confidence means the Niners better hope they get pressure on Flacco. Don't even underestimate the power of the Ray Lewis pre game speech in this Super Bowl. He is going to have that team believing they can walk through walls. At this point its almost more about how if the Raven's D turns back the clock, more than if Flacco can make short passes.

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If Flacco is going to beat the Niners, they need to force him into a shorter game where accuracy and efficiency are important. That's outside of his wheelhouse and it's where they can likely keep him contained. I also want to believe that our pass rushing will be better than the Ravens' previous two games.

East Bay Sports Guy

Yeah. He's very inaccurate on shorter, timing routes. I think the 49ers can and should be able to force him to stay intermediate. Tony Gonzalez was partially responsible for the struggles last week. Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson don't present the same match-up problems.

The 49ers will win the Stupor Bowl..and here's why: They aren't facing Tom Brady,Eli Manning,Peyton Manning,Aaron Rogers..etc. If Justin or Aldon Smith ever prayed for a standing target in the game,Flaco is it. The defense will get no surprises from Joe..he has none to hide. I wont say its a rout..I'm still channeling the score. But a 49ER win is a sure thing.