It’s widely agreed upon that fan favorite Tim Tebow doesn’t have the footwork, mechanics or experience of Kyle Orton. Tebow isn’t as polished as Brady Quinn either, but the fans didn’t care. They chanted “TE-BOW … TE-BOW” during games, and mostly because of the fans’ demands and the media constantly asking Broncos coach John Fox if Tebow was going to play, I knew at some point this year he would.
I haven’t been all that great at picking games this year against the spread (surprise, surprise), so I’m going to make myself feel better for focusing on the one prediction I actually nailed. I didn’t think Tebow would play as early as last week, or that Fox would name him the starter as early as Week 7 (Week 6 is Denver’s bye week), but I knew Tebow’s elevation from deity to starting QB deity was inevitable.
9/8: Raiders @ Broncos (-3)
You know Tim Tebow will be in there at some point, and home losses to divisional rivals will hasten the process.
9/24: Broncos @ Titans (-7.5)
Tim Tebow will start for the Broncos at some point. Until he does, I’ll pick against the Broncos.
9/30: Broncos @ Packers (-13.5)
Yet another reason for the Broncos to play Tim Tebow. You know it’s coming.
10/7: Chargers (-3.5) @ Broncos
Hi ho, hi ho, Denver will play Tebow.
Onto the Week 6 picks, with odds courtesy of 5dimes.com from around noon today (10/15/11):
Colts @ Bengals (-8)
There are a few games where teams are giving too many points. Here’s one.
Bills @ Giants (-3)
I keep picking against the Bills and getting burned, and the Giants looked weak against Seattle.
Eagles (-1) @ Redskins
The Eagles are done, and the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare for this game. A home game. Why are the Eagles favored? (And yes, I’m scared to death of this game. The Eagles can’t be this bad, can they?)
Jaguars @ Steelers (-13.5)
Baltimore crushes the Steelers, the Titans beat the Ravens handily, and Pittsburgh destroys Tennessee. Who knows anymore. I’m going to go with my ultra-scientific “too many points” theory.
Rams @ Packers (-15.5)
This is the season for St. Louis. They’re probably already done at 0-4, but 0-5 would make it official. And, again, sooooooo many points.
Panthers @ Falcons (-4)
The Panthers are now must-watch TV with Cam Newton, and this game is just made for NFL RedZone. Lots of scoring, and with an over/under of 50 I’d take the over and not think twice. You know, if I gambled.
Texans @ Ravens (-9)
This line seems weird. It’s not like Al Davis is going to suit up and play cornerback for the Ravens.
Cowboys @ Patriots (-7)
How angry is NBC that they can’t flex-schedule this game? Instead they get Bears/Vikings, which means instead of way too many closeup shots of Tom Brady and Tony Romo, we’ll get way too many closeups of Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler. It’s like MTV having a choice in the late-’90s between showing an ‘N Sync concert or Hootie and the Blowfish.
Saints (-4.5) @ Buccaneers
I watched every second of the Niners’ 48-3 rout over Tampa Bay. Pretty hard to convince myself to pick the Bucs after that showing.
Vikings @ Bears (-2)
Is the Julius Peppers injury that big of a deal? It seems like the Bears should be favored by at least 6 here. (Goes and looks at the stats, sees that the Vikings and Bears gain the same amount of yards per game on offense, the Vikings have a much better defense in terms of yards allowed and also lead the Bears in scoring differential.) Ah, screw it. Da Bears are at home.
Dolphins @ Jets (-8)
After this game we may see our first coaching change of the season. They might play “Don’t Stop Believing” at the end of this game as Tony Sparano walks off the field. And if that joke was way too much of a stretch, here’s a video that’ll explain things.
Browns @ Raiders (-7.5)
When I pick the Raiders to cover, they don’t. When I pick against them, they do. Logic tells me the Raiders are the better team, they’re at home and they’ll still be inspired by the passing of Mr. Davis. Logic also tells me the Browns possess the better defense.
49ers @ Lions (-4)
I’ve heard people complain that this line shows the 49ers are getting no respect. Really? The Lions have a better record, they’re a team built on speed that capitalizes on that speed on their home turf, and the 49ers have given up several big games already this season to opposing receivers. And Megatron … he’s pretty good.
Here’s an article I wrote earlier in the week about four main things the Lions bring to the table that the 49ers will have to contend with (if they stop Jahvid Best and keep Calvin Johnson under 200 yards, that’s a start), and here’s one that ran this morning about where I ask the question, “When is it safe to trust Alex Smith?” (Kurt Warner already does!) Now that we have the self-promotion out of the way, do the 49ers stand a chance in a morning game in the Eastern time zone in a dome? You guys know where I’m leaning, and I haven’t picked against the Niners yet, so…
Last week: 6-7