The A’s have lost two series in a row and dropped below .500, so who do they draw to try to get things going again … none other than the Evil Empire.
At least they Yankees are struggling too, with some whispers that maybe they are too old. Based on the name value of the Yankees I expected them to be heavily favored in the series, but the scrappy A’s should actually have a fighting chance in this one.
In case you forgot or didn’t see the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:
- I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
- The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and ZiPS projections, with the weighting shifting more toward the actual stats as the season progresses.
- The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
- Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James
Probables (via MLB.com):
Friday, May 25, 7:15 PM: Tyson Ross vs. Ivan Nova (FIREWORKS NIGHT!!!!)
Saturday, May 26, 1:05 PM: Bartolo Colon vs. CC Sabathia
Sunday, May 27, 1:05 PM: Tommy Milone vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Odds:
| A’s | Yankees | |
| Game 1 | 49% | 51% |
| Game 2 | 40% | 60% |
| Game 3 | 52% | 48% |
| Sweep | 10% | 15% |
| 2 out 3 | 35% | 40% |
| 1 out 3 | 40% | 35% |
| 0 out 3 | 15% | 10% |
| Win Series | 45% | 55% |
| Lose Series | 55% | 45% |
The A’s hold their own in this match up with the pitching and defense but the offense sure is holding them back. Even with the boost from being the home team they trail by over half a run a game and it isn’t even like the model is projecting the Yankees to be an offensive juggernaut.
The good news is that Yoenis Cespedes took some swings off a tee and was pain free, in addition to changing his grip which might have contributed to the strain. The A’s haven’t given a timetable for when the slugger will come back, but baring any setbacks it shouldn’t be too much longer. That should really help the A’s beleaguered offense.
