What will the 49ers get for Alex Smith? (contest post)

I would like to choose a combination of hypothetical options 2 & 3. No matter how this comment is date/time stamped, rest assured it was entered yesterday, errr...today... Tuesday, February 26th. When can I expect my delicious Amici's East Coast pizza to be delivered? I like pepperoni and extra sauce.

The most likely is the Chiefs giving up the 34th pick. It is pretty high but proven QBs are still a necessary part if a winning team. The Chiefs and Cardinals found out that talent everywhere BUT the QB position isn't a formula for success. The Cards are division rivals so that leaves the Chiefs.

Okay, so another idea, lets see what you guys think. I don't see us picking up a 3rd or 4th round pick for alex, instead I see us trading alex and i our first round pick to kansas city, for their first round pick (first over all). Just a guess, i don' think they're looking for more draft picks, just better draft picks

A fair trade for both: Alex Smith (+$5 mill) + Jonathan Goodwin (+$5 mill) for Chiefs 2013 2nd and 4th rnd picks + conditional 2014 pick (minimum 4th rnd). Re-cap: Chiefs had horrible qb play all 2012; dealt with many injuries to key players (charles, moiaki, berry, etc.); still produced 5 pro-bowlers on a 2-win team; currently have $14 mill cap space (plus a releasable Cassel @ +$5 mill). Which translates to a team with high potential to win a weak division, provided they get some additional talent in FA and draft well. This allows Chiefs to get a solid QB and a solid Center (their o-line weakness) whom already have continuity together. They then can use their #1 to draft best player available or trade back for more picks. They already have big receivers and a strong running game; adding a smart and accurate QB and Center to that offense could cure a lot of problems. Plus, Reid is a great QB coach (so it would seem). Good for Niners: niners are very close to SB and need to strike now. Getting pick #34 would allow them to do a lot of damage this off-season (player trades or pick trades). Additionally, clearing +$10 mill of cap would allow for more FA additions to fill current depth needs (Center, DB, etc.) and enable us to resign/extend the players we see fit. The only thing of value that the niners lose is our aging Center, whom we may already have a viable replacement for. Everybody Wins: Chiefs stay healthy and grind through their division on the way to the play-offs; Niners make big splashes in FA and/or draft to get themselves over the hump and secure a 6th Lombardi!

2 double cheesburgers 1 chicken nugget and a french fry....seal the deal!

Adam Schefter is wrong more often than economists and weather men. I still remember him telling KNBR that Troy Smith would be the Niners starter at one point and Ralph laughed in his face. If they get a 2nd rounder, it will most likely be in 2014. My guess is a 3rd and a 6th rounder this year.

Does anyone understand the concept of the time value of draft picks?

The 49ers should definitely shoot for the Chief's 34th overall pick or a pick in next year's draft. Because San Francisco has so many picks this year, a pick in next year's draft might be the best choice.

I still think the 49ers get the 34th pick for Alex, and what else they have to give depends on what kind of a battle the Chiefs get in with (theoretically) the Bills. As it stands, I bet the Niners give up Alex and a 5th round pick for the Chiefs' second rounder

Third and a conditional second

Tim, What I meant was that the value of a 3rd round pick in 2014 is equal to a 4th round pick in 2013. In order to get a better value next year than a pick this year, we would actually have to get a draft pick two rounds better. So if we are being offered a 3rd round pick in 2013, we would have to be offered a 1st round pick in 2014 in order to to beat it's comparable value of a 2nd round 2014 pick. 2013 3rd rd = 2014 2nd rd 2013 2nd rd = 2014 1st rd Why reject a 2013 3rd round pick to settle for a 2014 2nd round pick when they are essentially equal? If we get a 4th round offer, then we would need a 2nd round pick next year as compensation to beat the implied value of the 2013 offer. And that 2014 2nd round pick is equal to a 2013 3rd rounder so we might as well shoot for this year and try to trade for future picks rather than risk being stuck with a lesser valued pick.

Chris: Actually if we were to get a pick in the 2014 draft it would be a better pick than if we traded him for a 2013 pick,not the reverse as you stated .

I pick Hypothetical 2.

There;s absolutely no reason to bring Smith back. He's got a $9M cap hit and knows he won't ever play barring injury so what incentive does he have to restructure? None. If we forgo a trade for him, what guarantee is there that we would get a 3rd round compensation pick for him next year after he rides the bench for a year? Who says he signs a deal qualifying us for such a high pick? And who says that that pick is more valuable than a trade now especially considering the cost of keeping him on the roster in 2013?

I mostly agree with paperback on this -- the 49ers will get a 3rd/4th this year with some kind of kicker (e.g. 4th/5th) next year; possibly one or both picks will accelerate based on Smith meeting metrics. Supposedly this year's QB draft class aren't showing themselves well so far in tryouts, which ought to make any free agents more valuable. Finally, I don't see an overabundance of mid-round picks as a problem for Baalke and Harbaugh, i.e. I don't believe they'd be reluctant to take a deal like this just because they already have a lot of picks. They've demonstrated a willingness and an ability to stockpile picks, and I tend to think they'd do likewise if they needed to go the other direction and bundle picks to move up.

Scenario #2 PLUS+ They will also get a mid-rounder this or next year - there is nobody in either free-agent or draft status thats as good as a no #1 QB for at least the next 5+ years - except - Mr. Alex Smith!

There's no reason to tell teams that a player is off the market now or later. Why limit the possibility of a better deal two weeks before you have to?

Trading for the next year's draft pick usually decreases the value of the pick by a full round, so the question that should be asked is: is it better to get a 2013 3rd round pick or a 2014 4th round pick? Frankly I'd rather have ammo now in hand and possibly use that to prepare for the future than to have to rely on the future by acquiring a pick next year. You can trade what you have and it's much more difficult to do so when you don't.

If,as the report from CBS Sports says,the Niners are the ones telling everyone that alex has effectivly already been traded (DEAL DONE !),then they are telling all the other teams that Alex is off the market and that is that . No further negotiations would be accepted since according to the team Baalke has already given his word on a trade to another team . If a GM ever shows that his word can't be trusted,he is toast around the League. So,IF ,as the report says,the Niners are the ones that were telling everyone that a deal is done,then that is that and we need to just wait until March 12th to see what the deal was. If the story is just a rumor that the team didn't start,then it's not worth talking about . And remember,that if the Niners started the rumor and the other teams find out it was them spreading the lie,then that is just about as bad for Baalke's reputation as if he welched on a handshake deal. So,either the story is true or it's not. I hope it is true and Baalke got offered a 2nd round pick in 2014 and couldn't make the deal fastr enough (that is my guess).

I would think the Niners would not want another mid-round pick because even with all that ammo, there is no guarantee that they can use it to trade up to the spots they want. They also are not getting KC's 2nd. So what's left? A conditional 2014, say a 3rd that will most likely stay a 3rd unless Smith is a beast, then it's a 2nd, and a player this year in the vein of Tyson Jackson, Tony Moeaki, or Dexter McCluster. Jackson could be Jean-Francois replacement, Moeaki could be Delanie's replacement, or McCluster can be Ginn's replacement.

I pick Hypothetical #1, forgot to mention

I should add that trading an unwanted asset for a mid round pick just because they have many picks in that area doesn't mean that they still won't try for one, since the Chiefs' 3rd round pick is at the top of the round. Plus it can be used much better than the other SF mid-round picks to trade up.

The 49ers leaked the info in order to drum up trade interest before the QBs at the combine went through their workouts. Leaking to a non-beat writer allows the team to use the beat writers to discredit the leak in case that it backfires and doesn't provide an increased offer. In addition, it allows the 49ers to express plausible deniability by not making it seem to their alleged trade partner that SF is trying to pressure other potential suitors to up their bids when it looked like there was a handshake agreement in place. As it turned out, both Cleveland and Jax expressed no interest in trading for Smith, while KC failed to do so, allowing SF to use its beat writers to maintain its credibility in negotiations with KC. Less able to prove but still interesting to consider: The 49ers found out that the Chiefs and Eagles were talking this weekend about a Foles-to-KC deal in which Philly wanted a 2nd day pick for him but that KC was reluctant. This theory is plausible only if the best offer on Smith was a 4th rounder, which I believe to be the case. So, SF leaks info to a non-beat writer in order to pressure KC into upping their offer for Smith since having less options would all but require them to deal a 2nd or a 3rd for Foles. Also, it would leave KC little negotiating room if they outright rejected Philly and had to rely on either the draft or SF's option (especially after Reid's press conference where he promised to fix the QB situation). I surmise that KC did in fact raise their offer to a 3rd rounder for Smith but didn't necessarily close the door on Philly for Foles, since KC knows Philly has no room for him and there are no other apparent suitors. By not leaking the story to the beat writers, SF was able to maintain the writers' credibility to disseminate plausible information that Smith is still available, instilling trust in KC that the team is not using shady tactics to drive up the price and merely broadcasting no news at all since every team knows Smith is available. The team may not have known precisely what the Eagles and KC were discussing for Foles, but it's reasonable to assume that a deal made for Foles was going to severely limit the market for Smith, plus the team didn't want to risk a QB outperforming expectations at the Combine. I think the report was definitely leaked intentionally by the 49ers. Prediction: 49ers get KC's 2013 3rd round pick for Alex Smith.

Hypothetical Trade No. 3. 4th round draft pick. but it becomes a 3rd round pick if the chiefs have a winning record.

I think getting KC's 2013 2nd rounder is a pipe dream, but a great one to think about. I think more logical is getting a 3rd Round 2014 pick, that can become a 2nd rounder depending on Smith's production and KC's win total. The Niners would have gotten a 3rd round comp pick if they held Smith and let him walk next year, in essence that's what they'd be getting, while moving his salary this year.

Don't see how the Chiefs will give up that 2nd round pick for Alex Smith, especially if they are the only legit interested part in Smith right now. I see a conditional pick in 2014, something where if he starts 10+ games for the Chiefs, it's a 2nd rounder in 2014, if not, it's a 3rd rounder in 2014. So I guess hypothetical #3 is what I would go for.