NFL Picks, Week 11: KNBR’s paid ‘betting advice’ segments are a joke

You can look at the bottom of this post and laugh at my record against the spread this season. It’s fine, I can take it. I’m not a professional gambler — I don’t even have a bookie.

At least I’m not charging you for my betting tips. That’s what several of KNBR’s “guests” are doing. Oh, they’ll chop it up with the host(s) and try to seem like real fun, down-to-earth guys who do more homework than you, the average fan who likes to put a few bucks on the games every weekend.

Don’t be fooled, these are spots that are paid for by the so-called experts. And don’t get swindled after hearing this oft-repeated exchange:

Host: So how’d you do this past week?

Fraudulent betting expert: Well, last week was a rough week, we went 2-4. But this week I’m going to make it up to you and give you the entire rest of the season — that’s every game — for only $59! So just call this number, 1-888-DUMB-ASS, punch in your credit card and we’re going to start making some money this week with some great games…

That’s just what I need, an expert who specifically chooses games he thinks are “stone cold locks” and gets those games wrong anyway! “Hey, I just lost a couple grand using your picks last week, so thank GOD there’s a bargain this week so I can afford the rest of your crappy picks for the rest of the season! Too bad every credit card in my wallet is getting declined…”

Onto my crappy Week 11 picks, with odds courtesy of from around noon today (11/17/11):

Jets (-6) @ Broncos (-6)
The Jets are 1-3 on the road, the Broncos are 1-3 at home and completed two passes last week. This game is nearly impossible to choose, so I’m going to go with Tim Tebow rocking the Jets and setting the NYC tabloid world on fire.
Pick: Broncos

Bills @ Dolphins (-1)
It sure seems like the Bills are coming up on the third game of a four-game losing streak. It was kind of interesting while it lasted, Buffalo.
Pick: Dolphins

Bengals @ Ravens (-8)
The Ravens are impossible to figure out. They sweep the Steelers and lose to the Seahawks. The Bengals aren’t there yet, but they’re a tough team, this is a rivalry game (sort of — they’re in the same division anyway) and the Ravens almost lost to the Cardinals at home a couple weeks ago. Maybe Baltimore just has trouble with NFC West teams?
Pick: Bengals

Jaguars @ Browns (PK)
The Jags played the Colts last week; the Browns faced the Rams. So the Colts should be pulled out of their bye week and forced to play the Rams, right? A much easier prediction than the winner of this “NFL game”: lots of people in the Jacksonville and Cleveland metro areas will find themselves napping on their couches on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Jaguars

Cowboys (-8.5) @ Redskins
Remember when Washington was a proud franchise? A thorn in the 49ers’ sides throughout the ’80s and ’90s? You’d think Dan Snyder would see one of his teams having a winning season due to dumb luck by this point.
Pick: Cowboys

Buccaneers @ Packers (-15.5)
I’d say “TOO MANY POINTS,” but the Niners beat these guys by 45. Have to figure the Packers can muster a victory margin at least half that size.
Pick: Packers

Panthers @ Lions (-8)
Lots of silver and blue in this game.
Pick: Lions

Seahawks @ Rams (PK)
I could just make up something here, but what’s the use…
Pick: Seahawks

Titans @ Falcons (-7)
The Titans only have one bad loss, 16-14 in Week 1 at Jacksonville. And that’s not even that horrible of a loss. Interesting that both of these teams are 5-4.
Pick: Titans

Chargers @ Bears (-3.5)
Strange line, considering the Chargers are horrible and the Bears have won four in a row.
Pick: Bears

Eagles @ Giants (-4)
This line’s even stranger. The Giants just took part in one of the best games (if not the best game) in the NFL this season, and the Eagles just lost at home to the Cardinals. People really want to believe in the Eagles, and will continue to do so until Andy Reid suits up and plays right tackle.
Pick: Giants

Chiefs @ Patriots (-16)
TOO MANY POINTS! (Boy, I can’t wait for Monday’s all-day edition of Belichickapalooza on ESPN … although I’ll probably do what I normally do and avoid ESPN, just like I should avoid the dated practice of adding “apalooza” to things.)
Pick: Chiefs

Raiders @ Vikings (PK)
Minnesota can’t stop the pass (8.0 yards allowed per attempt, 18 TD/6 INT), and Carson Palmer has a new best friend in Denarius Moore. Adrian Peterson’s the best runner in the game, but if the Raiders can’t gear up to stop him they don’t deserve to go to the playoffs.
Pick: Raiders

Cardinals @ 49ers (-11)
I liked milking another post out of the Niners game last week, so again you’ll have to stay tuned. (Keep those credit cards handy!)
Pick: ???

Last week: 8-7
Overall: 72-72-2

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