The A’s managed to take care of business against the Mariners but did it by the narrowest of margins, scoring just five runs in the entire series. If they want to have a chance against Texas they are going to need to score that many in each game. If they don’t, and the projection system sure doesn’t think so, it could be all Texas.
In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:
- I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
- The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and ZiPS projections, with the weighting shifting more toward the actual stats as the season progresses.
- The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
- Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James
Probables (via MLB.com):
Thursday, June 28, 5:05 PM: Tyson Ross vs. Scott Feldman
Friday, June 29, 5:05 PM: A.J. Griffin vs. Matt Harrison
Saturday, June 30, 4:15 PM: Tommy Milone vs. Justin Grimm
Sunday, July 1, 4:05 PM: Travis Blackley vs. Yu Darvish
Odds:
| Rangers | A’s | |
| Game 1 | 77% | 23% |
| Game 2 | 72% | 28% |
| Game 3 | 62% | 38% |
| Game 4 | 76% | 24% |
| Sweep | 26% | 1% |
| 3 of 4 | 42% | 6% |
| Split | 25% | 25% |
| 1 of 4 | 6% | 42% |
| 0 of 4 | 1% | 26% |
| Win Series | 68% | 7% |
| Split | 25% | 25% |
| Lose Series | 7% | 68% |
The A’s are most definitely not favored in this series — they are not even favored in a single game!
The Rangers have a huge advantage in scoring runs and in the bullpen. Things are closer when it comes to the starters and defense, but with the A’s starting rotation missing both Bartolo Colon and Brandon McCarthy the replacements are not enough to give the A’s a decent chance on paper.
Luckily the games are not played on paper and the A’s have been playing good baseball as of late. Maybe they can steal a few of these games.
