Last week I introduced the first in what I am hoping to be a regular feature here at Bay Area Sports Guy, a preview of each upcoming A’s series using a projection model I built.
The post last week seemed to get a pretty positive response, so I will gladly keep this going for as long as the largely-ignored A’s fans (I kid, BASG) want to keep reading them. Plus, being able to spend a few minutes a few times a week with my spreadsheets warms a numbers nerd’s heart.
In case you forgot or didn’t see the explanation the first time, here is a quick description of how the model works:
- I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
- The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and ZiPS projections, with the weighting shifting more toward the actual stats as the season progresses.
- The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
- Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James
Probables (via MLB.com):
Monday, May 14, 7:05 PM: Tyson Ross vs. Dan Haren
Tuesday, May 15, 4:05 PM: Bartolo Colon vs. Ervin Santana (how many times will we hear about shadows with the twilight start?)
|0 out 2||27%||23%|
These 2-game series kind of suck, the length just feels off. Unfortunately the A’s have two of these mini-series this week before they start off interleague play against the Giants this weekend. Regardless of length, the A’s are favored to “sweep” this series and have a 77 percent chance of at least getting one win while visiting Los Angeles of Anaheim.
The team is pretty beat up but still managed to play pretty well against a good Tigers squad. Josh Reddick (how much do the Red Sox miss him?) is leading an offense that, while not great, is doing better than many thought. Oakland as a whole is off to a much better start than I expected and I am certainly intrigued to see how this season will play out.
After drawing over 63,000 this weekend, maybe fans of East Bay baseball are becoming intrigued as well. If Oakland can string together a few more wins, it could be a matter of time before the Bay Area as a whole takes notice.